DirecTV — Retention Analysis | OBT Advanced Analytics

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Sheet KPI Summary · showing 8 rows.

KPI	Value	Unit	YoY Change	vs Industry Benchmark
Overall 12-Month Retention	0.873	%	+2.1pp	+4.3pp above avg
Streaming Retention Rate	0.831	%	+2.3pp	+1.1pp above avg
Satellite Retention Rate	0.912	%	+0.8pp	+5.2pp above avg
Win-Back Success Rate	0.346	%	+3.2pp	+6.6pp above avg
Revenue Retention Rate	0.894	%	+1.9pp	+3.4pp above avg
At-Risk Subscribers	623000	Subscribers	-41,000	—
Annual Revenue at Risk	394000000	$	—	—
Avg Cost per Win-Back	82	$	-$8	—

Sheet Cohort Retention Curves · showing 25 rows.

Month	2022 Cohort %	2023 Cohort %	2024 Cohort %	2025 Cohort %	YoY Improvement
0	1	1	1	1	0
1	0.89	0.91	0.93	0.94	0.0499999999999999
2	0.82	0.85	0.87	0.89	0.0700000000000001
3	0.77	0.8	0.83	0.86	0.09
4	0.73	0.76	0.79	0.83	0.1
5	0.7	0.73	0.76	0.81	0.11
6	0.68	0.71	0.74	0.79	0.11
7	0.67	0.7	0.73	0.78	0.11
8	0.66	0.69	0.72	0.77	0.11
9	0.65	0.68	0.71	0.76	0.11
10	0.64	0.67	0.7	0.75	0.11
11	0.63	0.66	0.69	0.75	0.12
12	0.62	0.65	0.68
13	0.61	0.64	0.67
14	0.6	0.63	0.67
15	0.59	0.62	0.66
16	0.58	0.61	0.66
17	0.57	0.61	0.65
18	0.57	0.6	0.65
19	0.56	0.6	0.64
20	0.56	0.59	0.64
21	0.55	0.59	0.63
22	0.55	0.58	0.63
23	0.54	0.58	0.62
12-Month Retention	0.62	0.65	0.68	0.75

Sheet Retention by Channel · showing 8 rows.

Acquisition Channel	30-Day %	60-Day %	90-Day %	180-Day %	365-Day %	LTV ($)	Rank
Organic/Referral	0.97	0.94	0.91	0.85	0.79	4210	1
Bundle/Partnership	0.96	0.93	0.9	0.84	0.77	3890	2
Digital/CTV	0.94	0.91	0.87	0.8	0.73	2750	3
Paid Search	0.93	0.89	0.85	0.78	0.7	2980	4
Social Media	0.91	0.86	0.81	0.73	0.65	2110	5
Retail	0.88	0.82	0.76	0.67	0.58	1870	6
Win-Back	0.85	0.79	0.72	0.63	0.54	1580	7
AVERAGE	0.92	0.877142857142857	0.831428571428572	0.757142857142857	0.68	2770

Sheet Feature Adoption vs Retention · showing 7 rows.

Feature	Adopted — Retention %	Not Adopted — Retention %	Lift (pp)	Adoption Rate %	Subscriber Impact
DVR Usage	0.91	0.74	0.17	0.68	7684000
Mobile App	0.89	0.72	0.17	0.79	8927000
Sports Package	0.88	0.78	0.1	0.41	4633000
Premium Bundle	0.93	0.76	0.17	0.34	3842000
Family Plan	0.9	0.73	0.17	0.28	3164000
DirecTV Stream App	0.86	0.71	0.15	0.52	5876000
Voice Remote	0.87	0.75	0.12	0.61	6893000

Sheet Re-Engagement Campaign ROI · showing 7 rows.

Campaign Type	Cost per Re-Acquired ($)	Monthly Revenue ($)	Annual Revenue ($)	Break-Even (Months)	12-Month ROI	Success Rate %	Total Re-Acquired
Email Win-Back	28	87	1044	0.32183908045977	36.2857142857143	0.346	67200
CTV Retargeting	45	87	1044	0.517241379310345	22.2	0.291	43100
Direct Mail	67	87	1044	0.770114942528736	14.5820895522388	0.224	18400
Outbound Call	82	87	1044	0.942528735632184	11.7317073170732	0.187	31600
SMS/Push	15	87	1044	0.172413793103448	68.6	0.412	28900
Loyalty Offer	34	94	1128	0.361702127659575	32.1764705882353	0.384	22100
Bundle Upgrade	52	102	1224	0.509803921568627	22.5384615384615	0.318	19700

Sheet Revenue Retention Waterfall · showing 9 rows.

Component	Revenue ($B)	Type	Explanation
Starting ARR	11.8	Starting	Beginning of period ARR
Churned Revenue	-1.52	Negative	Lost from subscriber cancellations
Downgrade Impact	-0.34	Negative	Subscribers moving to lower tiers
Upgrade Revenue	0.89	Positive	Subscribers upgrading packages
Win-Back Revenue	0.31	Positive	Reactivated churned subscribers
New Subscriber Revenue	1.24	Positive	Newly acquired subscribers
Ending ARR	12.38	Ending	End of period ARR
Net Retention Rate	1.04915254237288	Rate	Net revenue retained from existing base
Net Revenue Retention	1.049	Benchmark	Industry net revenue retention metric

Sheet Churn Risk Distribution · showing 5 rows.

Risk Tier	Risk Score Range	Subscribers	% of Base	Monthly Churn Rate %	Revenue at Risk ($M)	Intervention Priority	Recommended Action
Low Risk	0-30	6200000	0.548672566371681	0.004	2.1576	4 — Monitor	Standard comms
Medium Risk	30-60	2800000	0.247787610619469	0.018	4.3848	3 — Proactive	Loyalty offer
High Risk	60-80	1677000	0.148407079646018	0.042	6.127758	2 — Urgent	Retention call
Critical Risk	80-100	623000	0.0551327433628319	0.114	6.178914	1 — Immediate	Executive save
TOTAL		11300000	1		18.849072

Sheet Seasonal Retention Index · showing 13 rows.

Month	Retention Index	Satellite Index	Stream Index	Key Driver	Recommended Action
January	96	95	98	Post-holiday adjustment	Push loyalty content
February	94	93	96	Slow content month	Promote new releases
March	91	92	88	Spring sports end	Pre-emptive retention offer
April	89	90	86	Spring churn spike	Price lock promotion
May	88	89	85	Pre-summer shift	Summer content preview
June	92	91	93	Summer content ramp	Bundle sports packages
July	95	94	97	Peak summer streaming	Cross-sell streaming
August	97	96	99	Back to school	Family plan promotion
September	99	100	98	NFL season start	Sports fan engagement
October	103	104	101	Strong content slate	Upsell premium content
November	107	108	105	Holiday bundles	Gift subscriptions
December	109	110	107	Holiday retention peak	Annual plan lock-in
Note: Index 100 = baseline. Above 100 = better retention, below 100 = higher churn risk.

Sheet Intervention Playbook · showing 6 rows.

Risk Segment	Trigger Signal	Intervention	Channel	Success Rate %	Cost per Sub ($)	Annual Revenue Saved ($M)	ROI
Critical Risk	Bill shock + usage drop >50%	Immediate retention offer	Outbound Call	0.41	82	394	4.8x
High Risk	30-day inactivity	Re-engagement email series	Email + CTV	0.29	28	187	6.7x
Medium Risk	Package downgrade inquiry	Proactive loyalty reward	SMS + App	0.34	34	142	4.2x
Long Tenure + Price Sensitive	Annual renewal window	Loyalty pricing lock	Email + Agent	0.67	45	318	7.1x
New Sub (< 90 days)	Low app engagement	Onboarding optimization	In-app + Email	0.52	15	89	5.9x
TOTAL Revenue Saved						1130

Source artefacts behind this analysis — case study writeups, raw data, and deliverable templates.

XLSX

DirecTV_Retention_Analysis_Data.xlsx Excel Data · ~21 KB Download →