DirecTV — Predictive LTV | OBT Advanced Analytics

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Sheet Overview · showing 13 rows.

DirecTV Predictive LTV Targeting — Sample Dataset
OBT Advanced Analytics \| May 2026

Sheet Index
Sheet	Sub-Model	Description
LTV_Subscriber_Raw	LTV Prediction	30 subscriber rows with features and LTV scores
LTV_Segments	LTV Prediction	Segment thresholds, decision rules, and KPIs
LTV_Model_Performance	LTV Prediction	Validation metrics and feature importance
Survival_Subscribers	Survival Analysis	30 subs with survival probabilities and hazard scores
Survival_Hazard_Ratios	Survival Analysis	Cox model coefficients and hazard ratios
Survival_Interventions	Survival Analysis	Risk-tiered intervention playbook
Bid_Optimization	Bid Optimization	Campaign-level bid data with LTV inputs/outputs
Channel_LTV_ROAS	Bid Optimization	ROAS heatmap by channel × LTV segment
Combined_Impact	All Models	Combined model ROI summary

Sheet LTV_Subscriber_Raw · showing 30 rows.

Sub_ID	State	Tenure_Mo	ARPU_$	Package_Tier	Features_Adopted	Avg_Daily_Hrs	Support_Contacts_12Mo	NPS_Score	Payment_Method	Churn_Events	Referrals_Made	Engagement_Score	Actual_LTV_$	Predicted_LTV_$	Prediction_Error_$	LTV_Segment
LTV_001	CA	36	87	Standard	3	2.1	1	8	Auto-Pay	0	1	72	3132	3050	82	Mid-Tier
LTV_002	TX	12	54	Base	1	1.2	3	5	Manual	1	0	38	648	710	-62	Low
LTV_003	FL	60	124	Premium	5	3.8	0	9	Auto-Pay	0	3	91	7440	7280	160	Premium
LTV_004	NY	24	78	Standard	2	1.8	2	7	Auto-Pay	0	1	61	1872	1950	-78	Developing
LTV_005	IL	48	112	Premium	4	3.2	1	9	Auto-Pay	0	2	84	5376	5200	176	Premium
LTV_006	OH	6	49	Base	1	0.9	4	4	Prepaid	2	0	25	294	320	-26	Low
LTV_007	GA	30	95	Standard	3	2.4	1	8	Auto-Pay	0	1	75	2850	2780	70	Mid-Tier
LTV_008	AZ	18	67	Standard	2	1.5	2	6	Manual	1	0	52	1206	1150	56	Developing
LTV_009	NC	54	138	Elite	6	4.2	0	10	Auto-Pay	0	4	96	7452	7600	-148	Premium
LTV_010	PA	42	102	Premium	4	3	1	9	Auto-Pay	0	2	82	4284	4100	184	High-Value
LTV_011	WA	8	52	Base	1	1	5	3	Manual	2	0	28	416	480	-64	Low
LTV_012	CO	36	91	Standard	3	2.3	1	8	Auto-Pay	0	1	70	3276	3150	126	Mid-Tier
LTV_013	MN	20	72	Standard	2	1.7	2	7	Auto-Pay	0	0	58	1440	1380	60	Developing
LTV_014	TN	48	118	Premium	5	3.6	0	9	Auto-Pay	0	3	89	5664	5500	164	Premium
LTV_015	VA	14	61	Base	2	1.3	3	5	Prepaid	1	0	42	854	900	-46	Low
LTV_016	OR	60	145	Elite	7	4.5	0	10	Auto-Pay	0	5	98	8700	8500	200	Premium
LTV_017	MI	32	88	Standard	3	2.2	1	7	Auto-Pay	0	1	68	2816	2900	-84	Mid-Tier
LTV_018	NV	10	55	Base	1	1.1	4	4	Manual	2	0	30	550	510	40	Low
LTV_019	MA	44	115	Premium	5	3.5	0	9	Auto-Pay	0	3	87	5060	4900	160	High-Value
LTV_020	IN	22	74	Standard	2	1.6	2	6	Manual	1	0	55	1628	1700	-72	Developing
LTV_021	MO	38	98	Standard	3	2.5	1	8	Auto-Pay	0	1	74	3724	3600	124	Mid-Tier
LTV_022	WI	15	58	Base	1	1.2	3	5	Prepaid	1	0	36	870	820	50	Low
LTV_023	MD	50	128	Elite	6	3.9	0	10	Auto-Pay	0	4	94	6400	6550	-150	Premium
LTV_024	SC	26	82	Standard	3	2	2	7	Auto-Pay	0	1	63	2132	2200	-68	Developing
LTV_025	KY	40	105	Premium	4	3.1	1	8	Auto-Pay	0	2	80	4200	4050	150	High-Value
LTV_026	AL	9	50	Base	1	0.8	5	3	Manual	3	0	22	450	500	-50	Low
LTV_027	UT	46	120	Premium	5	3.7	0	9	Auto-Pay	0	3	90	5520	5350	170	Premium
LTV_028	KS	28	80	Standard	2	1.9	2	7	Manual	0	1	60	2240	2300	-60	Developing
LTV_029	NM	55	132	Elite	6	4	0	10	Auto-Pay	0	4	95	7260	7100	160	Premium
LTV_030	AR	16	63	Standard	2	1.4	3	5	Prepaid	1	0	44	1008	950	58	Developing

Sheet LTV_Segments · showing 6 rows.

Segment	LTV_Range	Subscribers_M	Pct_of_Base	Avg_LTV_$	Revenue_Share_Pct	Max_CPA_$	Support_Tier	Upsell_Priority	Retention_Budget_Per_Sub_$	Monthly_Revenue_$M	Annual_Revenue_$B
Low	<$1,000	2.03	0.179646017699115	680	0.04	27.2	Standard	None	12	0.000115033333333333	1.3804e-06
Developing	$1,000-$2,000	2.71	0.239823008849558	1480	0.12	59.2	Standard	Low	28	0.000334233333333333	4.0108e-06
Mid-Tier	$2,000-$3,500	3.05	0.269911504424779	2720	0.24	108.8	Priority	Medium	54	0.000691333333333333	8.296e-06
High-Value	$3,500-$5,000	2.26	0.2	4180	0.28	167.2	Premium	High	112	0.000787233333333333	9.4468e-06
Premium	>$5,000	1.24	0.109734513274336	5840	0.32	233.6	Concierge	Immediate	218	0.000603466666666667	7.2416e-06
TOTAL		11.29							424	0.0025313	3.03756e-05

Sheet LTV_Model_Performance · showing 22 rows.

Model Validation Metrics
Metric	Value	Benchmark	Status
R² (Holdout)	0.847	>0.80	PASS
MAE	$187	<$250	PASS
RMSE	$312	<$400	PASS
MAPE	8.4%	<12%	PASS
AUC-ROC (Segment Classification)	0.891	>0.85	PASS
Training Time	4.2 min	<10 min	PASS
Inference Time (1M records)	38 sec	<60 sec	PASS


Top 10 Feature Importance
Rank	Feature	Importance Score	Business Meaning
1	tenure_months	0.284	Longer subscribers have higher LTV
2	arpu	0.218	Higher spend correlates with higher LTV
3	features_adopted	0.142	Feature stickiness predicts tenure
4	nps_score	0.098	Satisfaction predicts loyalty
5	engagement_score	0.087	Active users are retained longer
6	payment_method	0.072	Auto-pay reduces churn risk
7	churn_events	0.048	Past churners have lower predicted LTV
8	referrals_made	0.034	Referrers are more loyal
9	support_contacts	0.024	High contacts = dissatisfaction risk
10	package_tier	0.019	Premium packages signal higher intent

Sheet Survival_Subscribers · showing 30 rows.

Sub_ID	Tenure_Days	Status	ARPU_$	Package	Features_Adopted	NPS	Payment_Method	Hazard_Score	Survival_30d	Survival_60d	Survival_90d	Survival_180d	Survival_365d	Risk_Adj_LTV_$	Risk_Tier	Intervention_Required
SUR_001	1820	0	132	Elite	7	10	Auto-Pay	0.04	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.94	0.89	7200	Stable	No
SUR_002	245	1	52	Base	1	3	Manual	0.78	0.82	0.54	0.32	0.12	0.04	310	Critical	Yes
SUR_003	1460	0	118	Premium	5	9	Auto-Pay	0.07	0.98	0.96	0.95	0.91	0.84	5900	Stable	No
SUR_004	380	0	68	Standard	2	6	Auto-Pay	0.42	0.94	0.86	0.72	0.48	0.22	1450	High	Yes
SUR_005	90	1	47	Base	1	2	Manual	0.82	0.78	0.48	0.27	0.09	0.02	220	Critical	Yes
SUR_006	730	0	95	Standard	3	8	Auto-Pay	0.12	0.98	0.96	0.94	0.88	0.78	4200	Stable	No
SUR_007	540	0	78	Standard	2	6	Manual	0.51	0.91	0.8	0.58	0.34	0.15	1800	High	Yes
SUR_008	1095	0	110	Premium	5	9	Auto-Pay	0.08	0.99	0.97	0.95	0.9	0.82	5500	Stable	No
SUR_009	185	1	55	Base	1	4	Prepaid	0.69	0.86	0.62	0.42	0.18	0.06	480	High	Yes
SUR_010	920	0	102	Premium	4	8	Auto-Pay	0.14	0.97	0.95	0.92	0.84	0.72	4800	Stable	No
SUR_011	305	0	72	Standard	2	6	Auto-Pay	0.38	0.95	0.88	0.76	0.52	0.28	2100	Watch	No
SUR_012	60	1	44	Base	1	2	Manual	0.8	0.79	0.5	0.29	0.1	0.03	180	Critical	Yes
SUR_013	1280	0	125	Elite	6	10	Auto-Pay	0.05	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.93	0.87	6800	Stable	No
SUR_014	420	0	82	Standard	3	7	Auto-Pay	0.28	0.96	0.91	0.82	0.62	0.38	2900	Watch	No
SUR_015	155	1	50	Base	1	3	Manual	0.75	0.83	0.57	0.36	0.14	0.05	390	Critical	Yes
SUR_016	680	0	98	Standard	3	8	Auto-Pay	0.18	0.97	0.94	0.9	0.8	0.65	4100	Stable	No
SUR_017	350	0	70	Standard	2	5	Manual	0.55	0.89	0.76	0.55	0.29	0.12	1600	High	Yes
SUR_018	1640	0	138	Elite	7	10	Auto-Pay	0.04	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.95	0.9	7500	Stable	No
SUR_019	210	1	54	Base	1	3	Prepaid	0.72	0.84	0.58	0.38	0.15	0.05	420	Critical	Yes
SUR_020	780	0	108	Premium	4	9	Auto-Pay	0.1	0.98	0.96	0.93	0.86	0.75	5200	Stable	No
SUR_021	440	0	84	Standard	3	7	Auto-Pay	0.31	0.95	0.89	0.78	0.56	0.32	3000	Watch	No
SUR_022	130	1	48	Base	1	2	Manual	0.76	0.81	0.52	0.31	0.11	0.04	260	Critical	Yes
SUR_023	560	0	92	Standard	3	8	Auto-Pay	0.22	0.97	0.93	0.88	0.74	0.55	3800	Watch	No
SUR_024	960	0	115	Premium	5	9	Auto-Pay	0.09	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.89	0.79	5600	Stable	No
SUR_025	280	0	66	Standard	2	6	Auto-Pay	0.45	0.93	0.84	0.68	0.42	0.2	1700	High	Yes
SUR_026	1380	0	128	Elite	6	10	Auto-Pay	0.06	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.92	0.85	6900	Stable	No
SUR_027	320	0	74	Standard	2	5	Manual	0.47	0.92	0.82	0.65	0.4	0.18	1550	High	Yes
SUR_028	850	0	104	Premium	4	8	Auto-Pay	0.13	0.97	0.95	0.91	0.82	0.7	4600	Stable	No
SUR_029	175	1	51	Base	1	3	Manual	0.68	0.85	0.6	0.39	0.16	0.06	400	Critical	Yes
SUR_030	620	0	88	Standard	3	7	Auto-Pay	0.25	0.96	0.91	0.84	0.66	0.45	3200	Watch	No

Sheet Survival_Hazard_Ratios · showing 11 rows.

Feature	Coefficient	Hazard_Ratio	95_CI_Lower	95_CI_Upper	P_Value	Significance	Interpretation
manual_payment	0.61	1.84	1.62	2.09	<0.001	***	Manual payers churn 84% faster than auto-pay
no_app_usage	0.483	1.62	1.44	1.82	<0.001	***	Non-app users churn 62% faster
features_adopted	-0.342	0.71	0.68	0.74	<0.001	***	Each additional feature reduces hazard 29%
low_nps_1_5	0.322	1.38	1.21	1.57	<0.001	***	Detractors churn 38% faster
no_referral	0.199	1.22	1.09	1.37	0.001	**	Non-referrers churn 22% faster
auto_pay	-0.494	0.61	0.57	0.65	<0.001	***	Auto-pay reduces hazard 39%
five_plus_features	-0.821	0.44	0.4	0.48	<0.001	***	5+ features reduces hazard 56%
nps_9_10	-0.968	0.38	0.33	0.43	<0.001	***	Promoters churn 62% less often
referral_made	-0.616	0.54	0.48	0.6	<0.001	***	Referrers churn 46% less often
sports_package	-0.342	0.71	0.65	0.77	<0.001	***	Sports subscribers churn 29% less often
C-Statistic	0.79	—	—	—	—	—	Strong discriminatory ability

Sheet Survival_Interventions · showing 6 rows.

Risk_Tier	Survival_90d_Range	Subscribers_K	Monthly_Revenue_$M	Intervention	Channel	Cost_Per_Sub_$	Total_Cost_$M	Save_Rate_Pct	Revenue_Saved_$M	Net_ROI
Critical	<40%	187	16.3	Outbound Call + Offer	Phone	82	15.334	0.41	80	5.21716447110995
High	40-60%	436	37.9	Email Series + CTV	Email+CTV	34	14.824	0.29	66	4.45223961144091
Medium	60-75%	892	77.6	Loyalty Reward	SMS+App	18	16.056	0.22	103	6.41504733432985
Watch	75-85%	1240	107.9	Engagement Campaign	CTV+Email	8	9.92	0.14	91	9.17338709677419
Stable	>85%	8545	743.4	Standard Comms	All	2	17.09	0.05	112	6.55354008191925
TOTAL		11300	983.1			144	73.224		452

Sheet Bid_Optimization · showing 25 rows.

Campaign_ID	Channel	Audience_Segment	LTV_Score_$	Base_CPM_$	Segment_Multiplier	Adjusted_CPM_$	CPM_Cap_$	Final_Bid_$	Impressions_K	Clicks	Conv	ROAS	CPA_$	Status
BID_001	CTV	Sports	680	2.72	1.35	3.672	45	3.672	2400	4320	86	10187.908496732	0.102474418604651	ACTIVE
BID_002	CTV	Multi-Screen	1480	5.92	1.42	8.4064	45	8.4064	1800	2880	54	3725.73277502855	0.280213333333333	ACTIVE
BID_003	Digital Display	Binge	2720	10.88	1.18	12.8384	18	12.8384	3200	4800	96	2439.55633100698	0.427946666666667	PAUSED
BID_004	Paid Search	Budget	4180	16.72	0.72	12.0384	28	12.0384	850	1020	10	1020.26456515621	1.023264	ACTIVE
BID_005	Social Media	Family	5840	23.36	1.12	26.1632	12	12	4500	6750	81	1566	0.666666666666667	TESTING
BID_006	CTV	Lean-Back	1480	5.92	1.08	6.3936	45	6.3936	1200	1980	36	4898.64864864865	0.21312	ACTIVE
BID_007	Digital Display	Sports	2720	10.88	1.35	14.688	18	14.688	2800	4480	54	1370.79831932773	0.7616	ACTIVE
BID_008	Paid Search	Multi-Screen	4180	16.72	1.42	23.7424	28	23.7424	750	975	10	586.292876878496	1.78068	PAUSED
BID_009	Social Media	Binge	680	2.72	1.18	3.2096	12	3.2096	5600	7840	62	3601.24982196268	0.28989935483871	ACTIVE
BID_010	CTV	Budget	5840	23.36	0.72	16.8192	45	16.8192	1900	3040	61	1992.83525594809	0.523876721311475	ACTIVE
BID_011	Digital Display	Family	2720	10.88	1.12	12.1856	18	12.1856	2100	3150	38	1550.30762304922	0.673414736842105	TESTING
BID_012	Paid Search	Lean-Back	1480	5.92	1.08	6.3936	28	6.3936	680	884	9	2161.16852146264	0.483072	ACTIVE
BID_013	Social Media	Sports	4180	16.72	1.35	22.572	12	12	4200	6300	50	1035.71428571429	1.008	ACTIVE
BID_014	CTV	Multi-Screen	680	2.72	1.42	3.8624	45	3.8624	1100	1760	35	8600.39918656323	0.121389714285714	PAUSED
BID_015	CTV	Binge	2720	10.88	1.18	12.8384	45	12.8384	3500	5600	84	1951.64506480558	0.534933333333333	ACTIVE
BID_016	Digital Display	Budget	5840	23.36	0.72	16.8192	18	16.8192	2200	3300	26	733.577210460772	1.42316307692308	ACTIVE
BID_017	Paid Search	Family	4180	16.72	1.12	18.7264	28	18.7264	900	1170	12	743.335611756664	1.40448	TESTING
BID_018	Social Media	Lean-Back	1480	5.92	1.08	6.3936	12	6.3936	6500	9100	91	2286.03603603604	0.456685714285714	ACTIVE
BID_019	CTV	Sports	680	2.72	1.35	3.672	45	3.672	1600	2560	51	9062.5	0.1152	ACTIVE
BID_020	Digital Display	Multi-Screen	2720	10.88	1.42	15.4496	18	15.4496	2900	4350	52	1211.68185584093	0.861612307692308	PAUSED
BID_021	Paid Search	Binge	4180	16.72	1.18	19.7296	28	19.7296	780	1014	10	678.402774745326	1.5389088	ACTIVE
BID_022	Social Media	Budget	5840	23.36	0.72	16.8192	12	12	4800	6720	54	978.75	1.06666666666667	ACTIVE
BID_023	CTV	Family	1480	5.92	1.12	6.6304	45	6.6304	1300	2080	42	5087.05821205821	0.205226666666667	TESTING
BID_024	Digital Display	Lean-Back	2720	10.88	1.08	11.7504	18	11.7504	3100	4650	56	1604.99683744466	0.650468571428572	ACTIVE
BID_025	Paid Search	Sports	680	2.72	1.35	3.672	28	3.672	720	1008	10	3948.80174291939	0.264384	ACTIVE

Sheet Channel_LTV_ROAS · showing 6 rows.

LTV_Segment	CTV_ROAS	Display_ROAS	Search_ROAS	Social_ROAS	Direct_Mail_ROAS	Best_Channel
Low (<$1K)	4.2	2.8	3.1	2.4	1.9	CTV
Developing ($1-2K)	7.4	4.8	6.2	4.1	3.8	CTV
Mid-Tier ($2-3.5K)	9.8	7.2	8.4	6.8	6.1	CTV
High-Value ($3.5-5K)	12.4	8.9	10.2	8.4	9.1	CTV
Premium (>$5K)	14.8	9.4	11.8	8.9	12.2	CTV
Note: CTV dominates ROAS across all LTV segments. Direct Mail competitive for Premium segment.

Sheet Combined_Impact · showing 4 rows.

Model	Annual_Investment_$M	Revenue_Impact_$M	Net_Benefit_$M	ROI_Multiple	Payback_Months	Primary_KPI	KPI_Value
LTV Prediction Model	1.9	108	106.1	56.8421052631579	0.211111111111111	R²	0.847
Survival Analysis	1.4	280	278.6	200	0.06	C-Statistic	0.79
LTV-Based Bid Optimization	2.2	184	181.8	83.6363636363636	0.143478260869565	Impression Win Rate	54%
Full LTV Suite	5.5	572	566.5	104	0.115384615384615	ROAS	11.4×

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